Research reinforces what we know about warnings

New research undertaken in Australia relating to bushfires is repeatedly showing that what we know about human behaviour in bushfires isn’t changing.

Funny that. Dr Rob Gordon says we use the “reptilian brain” when responding to disasters. It’s been slowly adapting for hundreds of thousands of years, so its unlikely new technology is going to change it in the blink of an eye.

Jim Mclennan who’s been a great deal of research into how people and communities respond to disasters has recently sent me two research items which describe people’s preparation activities.

In summary he seems to be suggesting that warnings issued by weather agencies and emergency responders in Australia should be modified to ensure they meet a variety of different human needs.

DFES Bushfire Alerts and Warnings Report September 2013_Redacted

capturing_community_experiences_sa_bushfires_january_2014

capturing_community_experiences_sa_bushfires_january_2014

Jim McLennan (PhD) Bushfire Safety Researcher Chair, Science, Health & Engineering College Human Research Ethics Sub-Committee, Adjunct Professor, Department of Psychology & Counselling,  La Trobe University, Bundoora VIC 3086 AUSTRALIA

email: J.McLennan@latrobe.edu.au

 

 

 

The tale of two warnings

 At the time of writing there are two fires causing authorities some headaches. Overnight it appears about 30 members of the fishing village at Musselroe Bay in North Eastern Tasmania evacuated themselves to the local boat ramp ahead of a bushfire which “jumped containment lines.”

The Tasmania Fire Service issued an emergency warning at 9.35 pm last night and advised residents the township would be affected within half an hour. Today the situation has changed and the town is under a “Watch and Act.”

Meantime Inciweb gives us warnings for a fire at at Fern Lake in Colorado’s Rocky Mountain National Park. (Warning reproduced below, under the Tasmanian Fire Service Watch and Act warning.)

The Rocky Mountains Fire service believes more is better, and the amount of information available to residents and travellers is exhaustive.

For Australian The TFS takes a different approach with brevity being paramount but with a lot more effort being put into finding an effective description of the fire, to highlight to readers the threat they might face, and in context too, with fire behaviour being pinpointed. This is part of the Auystralian Bushfires Warning National FGramework, and while it sounds a little clunky, it certainly accurately characterises the fire behaviour.

The fact that the community meeting was being broadcast live from Colorado is exciting to see. ABC Radio in Victoria has been broadcasting community meetings for about a year to much community acclaim.

 

Bushfire Watch & Act Message

CUCKOO CREEK, MUSSELROE BAY
200367

Current from:03/12/2012 01:21 PM     until:  03/12/2012 08:00 PM   or further notice 
 

There is a large bushfire at Cuckoo Creek, MUSSELROE BAY

The fire danger rating in this area is high . Fire under these conditions can be difficult to control .

This fire may affect the communities of Musselroe Bay township 

This bushfire is currently not controlled.

There may be embers, smoke and ash falling on Musselroe Bay township and surrounding areas.

Reported Road Closures:  none at this time but smoke may be covering parts of Musselroe Road and there is a possibility of this road being closed due to increased fire activity

What to do:

Activate your bushfire plan now

If you are away from home: Do not try to return to your home as the roads in this area could be highly dangerous.

Non residents should stay away from the affected areas.

Monitor ABC Local Radio & TFS Website – www.fire.tas.gov.au for further instructions

Community Information:
Fire remains contained on the West side of Musselroe Road and South of River Road.TFS crews have conducted back burn operations between the fire front and Musselroe Road in an effort to contain the fire.

Crew numbers are being increased throughout the day in expectation of increasing wind strengths.
 

Aurora crews on site managing threats to power infrastructure.

If there is any fire activity causing you concern please report it to the TFS by calling Triple Zero (000).
 

TFS Attending Resources:
Resources Arrived:
  2 x MEDIUM TANKER
  3 x LIGHT TANKER
  1 x PERSONNEL CARRIERResources Mobilised:
  1 x TFS
  1 x PERSONNEL CARRIER

Non-TFS Attending Resources:
 Meantime over at Colorado, the Inciweb information is voluminous, and has effective evacuation information, and road closures, but little context.

Fern Lake Fire Announcement Incident 

 Evacuation and Pre-Evacuation Information Incident:

Fern Lake Fire Wildfire Released: 4 hrs. ago

EVACUATION INFORMATION There is a Red Flag warning today. Based on wind forecasts for this evening, residents should be aware that pre-evacuation and evacuation notices could be expanded. Sign up for emergency notifications at www.leta911.org. Changes in current evacuation and pre-evacuation orders are also made through reverse notification. The scope and necessity of evacuations is continuously evaluated. At this time, only individuals with a medical necessity are allowed to re-enter the evacuation area of the Highway 66 corridor with an escort from the Sheriff’s office. The Highway 66 corridor, including all adjacent streets, remains in evacuation. Electrical power is still on in the area. Last night, expanded pre-evacuation reverse notifications were sent to the Marys Lake Road area to include the area from Moraine Avenue and Rock Ridge Road South to Highway 7 and Fish Creek Road. The pre-evacuation notice includes both the east and west sides of Marys Lake Road. Pre-evacuation means that residents should be ready to leave if they receive an evacuation notice. Residents of High Drive and adjacent streets are also on pre-evacuation notice. The residents in this area must present identification to law enforcement at the High Drive road block. No others will be allowed in the area. The evacuation center will transition from the Estes Park High School to the Mountain View Bible Fellowship at 3 p.m. on today, Dec. 2. This location will be used for sheltering and continued evacuee updates. Mountain View Bible Fellowship is located at 1575 South Saint Vrain Ave. /Highway 7, at the corner of Peak View Drive. The transition to the church has been moved up from 5 p.m. to 3 p.m. today. The cooperating agencies, the Red Cross and the Salvation Army are staffing this evacuation center. Information is provided to evacuees on site. Large animals may be taken to the Stanley Park Fairgrounds at 1209 Manford Ave. INCIDENT INFORMATION SOURCES AND BRIEFINGS There will be a community and evacuee meeting at 5 pm today (Dec. 2) at Town Hall in the board room, 170 MacGregor Avenue. This meeting will be live streamed at www.estes.org/boardsandmeetings broadcast live on local cable channel 12. A media briefing will be held at approximately 6 p.m., immediately following the community meeting will be a press briefing at Town Hall. Information on this fire is available at: · http://www.inciweb.org/ · Twitter: @inciweb and #FernLakeFire · Public information line: 970-577-3716 (Open 8 a.m. until 10 p.m. Dec. 2 and Dec. 3) · Media Information line: 970-577-3718 (Open 8 a.m. until 10 p.m. Dec. 2 and Dec. 3) END Unit Information Rocky Mountain National Park National Park Service Incident Contacts Fern Lake Fire Information Phone: 970-577-3716 Hours: 8a-10p daily Traci Weaver Phone: 307-690-1128 more contacts »«

Announcement – 14 min. ago Evacuation and Pre-Evacuation Information Announcement – 4 hrs. ago Fern Lake Fire Dec. 2, 2:30 PM Update News – 5 hrs. ago Community Meeting Tonight and a Red Flag Warning Announcement – 10 hrs. ago